How We Evaluate a Potential Basketball Market
A city can love basketball and still be the wrong place for a professional team. The real question is whether that passion can support a repeatable sports business.
When people suggest a city for a new basketball team, they usually begin with one argument:
“There are a lot of basketball fans here.”
That matters.
It is not enough.
A viable professional basketball market needs more than residents who enjoy the sport. It needs an affordable venue, qualified ownership, local businesses capable of supporting sponsorships, accessible travel, prospective players, recurring customers and a reason for the community to identify with the team.
This is why USBN cannot choose markets based solely on population, social-media enthusiasm or a city’s reputation as a “basketball town.”
A strong market must work on three levels:
- The competition must be credible.
- The local economics must be sustainable.
- The community must have a reason to care.
A market can be large but commercially inaccessible.
It can have excellent players but no suitable venue.
It can have a strong business community but weak local identity.
It can possess all the ingredients individually without having an ownership group capable of bringing them together.
The objective is not simply to find cities where basketball could be played.
It is to identify markets where a professional team can be operated, supported and developed over time.
Population Is the Starting Point—not the Decision
Population establishes the size of the potential customer base.
But the number printed beside a city’s name rarely tells the entire story.
USBN should evaluate the broader market area, not only the legal boundaries of the municipality.
A team may draw customers from:
- The host city
- Surrounding suburbs
- Neighboring counties
- Nearby colleges
- Youth basketball programs
- Local employers
- Regional basketball communities
A smaller city located within a growing regional corridor may offer more potential than a larger city isolated from surrounding communities.
The U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey provides annual estimates covering population, income, age, housing, commuting and other social and economic characteristics. Those measures allow an organization to examine the people behind the population total—not merely count them.
What we examine
Total market population
How many people live within realistic driving distance of the venue?
The appropriate radius will vary by geography, traffic and competing entertainment options. A 30-mile radius in one market may represent a convenient trip. In another, it may require more than an hour.
Population growth
A growing market may provide:
- New residents
- Expanding neighborhoods
- Increasing business activity
- Additional schools
- Greater demand for entertainment
Population decline does not automatically disqualify a city, but it increases the importance of strong local identity and disciplined operating costs.
Household composition
A team offering affordable family entertainment needs to understand:
- Number of households with children
- Household size
- Age distribution
- Disposable income
- Weekend and evening behavior
A city dominated by commuters, retirees or college students will require a different ticketing strategy than a suburban family market.
Geographic concentration
A million people spread across an enormous region may be harder to reach than 300,000 people concentrated near one venue.
Density influences:
- Travel time
- Advertising efficiency
- Group sales
- Venue access
- Community visibility
The central population question
We are not asking:
Is this a large city?
We are asking:
Is there a sufficiently large and reachable audience to support the team’s realistic attendance goals?
A local professional team does not need NBA-scale demand.
It needs enough repeat customers to make its own economics work.
Venue Availability Can Determine Whether the Market Is Possible
A proposed team does not have a market until it has somewhere dependable to play.
The ideal venue is not necessarily the largest building available.
It is the facility that provides the strongest balance of:
- Affordability
- Availability
- Accessibility
- Atmosphere
- Operational control
- Commercial opportunity
FIBA’s venue guidance emphasizes that basketball facilities should be aligned with their location, users and available resources. It treats the venue as a complete operating environment involving the court, seating, equipment, safety, technology, amenities and spectator experience.
What we examine
Capacity
The building should fit realistic demand.
A team projecting 1,200 attendees does not automatically benefit from a 10,000-seat arena. The larger facility may create greater rental, security, staffing and production costs while making a respectable crowd look insignificant.
A smaller, nearly full venue can create:
- Better atmosphere
- Visual scarcity
- Stronger broadcasts
- Greater urgency around ticket sales
- More energy for players and fans
Cost
The published rental rate is only the beginning.
We must identify:
- Security charges
- Cleaning
- Required personnel
- Equipment fees
- Insurance
- Ticketing charges
- Concession splits
- Parking rights
- Setup and teardown costs
- Deposits
- Taxes
An apparently inexpensive facility can become costly once mandatory expenses are included.
Schedule availability
A team needs dependable dates.
Facilities may prioritize:
- School athletics
- College programs
- Concerts
- Community events
- Existing tenants
- Tournaments
A beautiful arena that cannot guarantee the required home schedule is not a viable home venue.
Revenue control
The venue agreement should answer:
- Who controls concessions?
- Can the team sell merchandise?
- Can sponsors place signage?
- Does the team participate in parking revenue?
- Can premium seating or hospitality be sold?
- Are outside vendors permitted?
- Can the team retain ticket-buyer data?
These rights can materially affect the economics of every game.
Production capability
The facility should support:
- Reliable internet
- Camera positions
- Lighting
- Power
- Commentary locations
- Scoreboard integration
- Sponsor visibility
- Player and staff workspaces
A venue that works for recreational basketball may not work for a professionally presented and broadcast competition.
The central venue question
We are not asking:
Does the city have a gym?
We are asking:
Does the market have a dependable, commercially workable venue that supports the team’s schedule, customer experience and revenue model?
Without that answer, the market is not ready.
The Local Business Base Determines Sponsorship Capacity
For many emerging sports properties, sponsorship can be as important as ticket revenue—and sometimes more important during early development.
A market needs businesses that:
- Serve local consumers
- Benefit from community visibility
- Have sufficient marketing budgets
- Value customer engagement
- Can activate through sports
The Census Bureau’s County Business Patterns program provides annual local data covering the number of employer establishments, employment and payroll by industry. This allows market analysis to move beyond a general statement that “there are businesses nearby” and examine the actual composition of the commercial base.
What we examine
Number of potential sponsors
Relevant categories may include:
- Healthcare
- Banking
- Insurance
- Automotive
- Restaurants
- Hotels
- Real estate
- Home services
- Education
- Technology
- Fitness
- Legal services
- Consumer products
- Regional employers
The objective is not to count every registered company.
It is to estimate how many organizations have:
- A meaningful local presence
- A reachable decision-maker
- A relevant customer base
- A realistic marketing budget
Business concentration
A market dominated by one major employer can provide a powerful partnership opportunity.
It can also create concentration risk.
If the team becomes dependent on one sponsor, the loss of that relationship may materially damage operations.
A diversified business base creates more potential categories and reduces reliance on any single company.
Local versus regional decision-making
Some markets contain many retail locations but few local decision-makers.
A national chain may operate ten locations in the region while controlling sponsorship decisions from another state.
Locally owned businesses, regional companies and institutions with local marketing authority may be easier to engage and more invested in community outcomes.
Sponsorship fit
The team must be able to offer more than logo placement.
Potential partnerships may include:
- Game sponsorships
- Category exclusivity
- Community programming
- Employee hospitality
- Youth clinics
- Broadcast integrations
- Content sponsorships
- Product sampling
- Customer promotions
- Naming rights
A market becomes more attractive when its businesses can use the team to achieve specific commercial objectives.
The central business-base question
We are not asking:
Are there companies in the city?
We are asking:
Is there a sufficient concentration of locally reachable businesses that can benefit from and financially support a professional sports platform?
A market with strong attendance potential but no credible sponsor base may be difficult to sustain.
Basketball Culture Must Be Measured Through Behavior
Basketball culture is easy to claim and difficult to define.
Nearly every market can point to popular high-school teams, local courts or successful players.
The issue is whether basketball interest is sufficiently organized and visible to help support a professional team.
National participation data can establish the broad importance of school athletics, but USBN must examine local evidence. NFHS reported record U.S. high-school sports participation for the 2024–25 school year and represents nearly 20,000 high schools through its member associations. That scale demonstrates how extensive the organized sports ecosystem is, but market-level analysis still requires local investigation.
What we examine
School basketball
We assess:
- Number of high-school programs
- Attendance at major games
- Local rivalries
- Coaching networks
- Media coverage
- Alumni engagement
Strong school basketball can create potential relationships with students, parents, coaches and administrators.
College basketball
Nearby colleges can contribute:
- Players
- Coaches
- Facilities
- Fans
- Media interest
- Interns
- Potential partnerships
However, college basketball can also be competition.
A market where residents are heavily committed to an established university program may have limited attention for another team—or it may contain a large basketball audience seeking more games after the college season.
The distinction must be tested.
Youth basketball
The number of:
- Recreation leagues
- Travel teams
- Training programs
- Tournaments
- Camps
- Private trainers
- Court facilities
can reveal how deeply basketball is embedded in the community.
Youth programs also create potential group-ticket customers and community partners.
Existing attendance behavior
Interest expressed online is less persuasive than actual behavior.
We want to know:
- Do residents attend local basketball games?
- Do tournaments attract crowds?
- Do schools sell tickets consistently?
- Are sports bars and community organizations engaged?
- Do local media outlets cover basketball outside major national stories?
Local basketball identity
A team needs a story that belongs to the market.
That identity may come from:
- Local history
- A distinctive neighborhood
- A regional nickname
- A notable basketball tradition
- A rivalry with another city
- Community pride
- A perceived lack of professional representation
The strongest team brands do not feel imported.
They feel as though they could only belong to that market.
The central culture question
We are not asking:
Do people say they love basketball?
We are asking:
Do their participation, attendance, spending and community behavior demonstrate that basketball already occupies a meaningful place in the market?
Culture should be evidenced, not assumed.
Travel Logistics Affect the Entire League
A market does not exist independently.
Every team must travel to other teams, and opponents must be able to reach it.
Poor geography can increase:
- Transportation costs
- Hotel expenses
- Player fatigue
- Schedule complexity
- Cancellation risk
- Time away from work and family
For an emerging league operating with disciplined budgets, travel can determine whether a market is financially practical.
What we examine
Distance to existing teams
A new market becomes more attractive when it:
- Strengthens a regional cluster
- Creates nearby opponents
- Reduces average travel
- Supports same-day trips
- Produces natural rivalries
An isolated team may be commercially interesting but operationally expensive.
Highway access
We assess:
- Proximity to major interstates
- Typical traffic conditions
- Reliability of travel routes
- Distance from the highway to the venue
- Availability of bus parking
A city may appear close geographically while remaining difficult to reach consistently.
Airport access
Air travel may become relevant as the league expands.
The evaluation should consider:
- Distance to a commercial airport
- Flight availability
- Ground transportation
- Cost
- Reliability
Airport access matters less during a tightly regional stage and more as the league develops broader competition.
Hotels and team services
The market should have access to:
- Affordable hotels
- Team meals
- Medical services
- Practice facilities
- Transportation providers
- Equipment support
Schedule resilience
We also examine what happens when something goes wrong.
Can the team:
- Reschedule quickly?
- Access a backup venue?
- Accommodate an overnight opponent?
- Replace transportation?
- Manage severe weather or traffic disruptions?
The central travel question
We are not asking:
Can a team reach the city?
We are asking:
Can teams travel to and from the market repeatedly, safely and economically throughout an entire season?
One difficult trip is an inconvenience.
A season of difficult trips is a structural problem.
Player Candidates Determine Whether the Team Can Field a Credible Product
A market may have customers, sponsors and a venue but still lack sufficient player access.
USBN’s purpose includes expanding professional opportunities for athletes, but every local team must still recruit a competitive and reliable roster.
What we examine
Nearby college programs
Potential player sources may include:
- NCAA programs
- NAIA institutions
- Junior colleges
- Former college players
- Recent graduates
- Players returning from overseas
- Athletes overlooked by higher-level leagues
The analysis should consider the broader regional player pool, not only schools inside the city limits.
Existing professional and semi-professional players
Some markets have established networks of:
- Former professionals
- International players
- Coaches
- Agents
- Trainers
- Basketball organizers
Those networks can accelerate roster development.
Player relocation requirements
A market that cannot supply enough local or regional talent may require athletes to relocate.
That creates additional questions:
- Can compensation support relocation?
- Is housing available?
- Can players find outside employment?
- Is transportation practical?
- Will players remain for the full season?
Position balance and quality
A large number of interested players does not guarantee a credible roster.
The market must provide access to:
- Guards
- Wings
- Post players
- Experienced leadership
- Defenders
- Shooters
- Qualified coaches
Reliability
Teams need athletes who will:
- Attend practices
- Travel
- Communicate
- Follow league rules
- Maintain conditioning
- Complete the season
The ability to perform matters.
The ability to operate professionally matters as well.
The central player question
We are not asking:
Are there people who want to play?
There almost always are.
We are asking:
Is there a sufficiently deep, qualified and dependable player pool to support professional-level competition throughout the season?
A team cannot build credibility through tryout interest alone.
The Factor That Connects Everything: Qualified Local Ownership
Population, venues, businesses, culture, travel and players are market ingredients.
Ownership turns those ingredients into an operating team.
A city can score well in every other category and still fail if no qualified person or group is prepared to lead the organization.
The ownership group must be capable of:
- Providing sufficient capital
- Selling sponsorships
- Managing personnel
- Securing the venue
- Building community relationships
- Controlling expenses
- Reporting accurately
- Following league standards
- Completing the schedule
A local owner or operator should possess meaningful relationships within the market.
Those relationships may include:
- Business leaders
- Schools
- Venue managers
- Coaches
- Community organizations
- Local government
- Media
- Youth programs
The league can provide a system, brand standards and central support.
It cannot manufacture local trust from a distance.
The central ownership question
Who will wake up every day responsible for making this team work?
Until that question has a credible answer, the market remains theoretical.
The USBN Market Evaluation Scorecard
To make comparisons more disciplined, USBN can score every prospective market across consistent categories.
A practical 100-point model could use:
| Evaluation Category | Weight |
|---|---|
| Population and reachable audience | 15 |
| Venue availability and economics | 20 |
| Local business and sponsorship base | 20 |
| Basketball culture and community fit | 15 |
| Travel and regional alignment | 10 |
| Player and coaching candidates | 10 |
| Ownership readiness | 10 |
| Total | 100 |
The weighting reflects a difficult reality:
Population can make a market attractive. Venue economics and commercial execution determine whether the team can survive.
Suggested classifications
80–100: Priority Market
The city appears capable of supporting development, subject to ownership verification and final due diligence.
65–79: Development Market
The opportunity is credible, but one or more major gaps must be resolved before approval.
50–64: Monitor
The market has useful qualities but is not currently ready for launch.
Below 50: Not Recommended
The existing risk outweighs the evidence of near-term viability.
The score should guide judgment—not replace it.
A serious ownership problem or unavailable venue may disqualify a market regardless of its total points.
Evidence We Would Want Before Approving a Team
A promising city should advance from discussion to documentation.
Before USBN approves a team, the proposed market should produce evidence such as:
- Demographic and household analysis
- Signed or highly developed venue agreement
- First-season operating budget
- Ownership capitalization plan
- List of qualified sponsorship prospects
- Ticket-sales assumptions
- Youth and school basketball partnerships
- Player-recruiting plan
- Travel-cost estimates
- Staffing structure
- Media-production plan
- Community launch strategy
- Backup venue and contingency procedures
A social-media poll can show interest.
It cannot replace due diligence.
An enthusiastic meeting can open a conversation.
It cannot prove the economics.
A market becomes credible when its claims can be supported by contracts, data, commitments and qualified leadership.
What Can Disqualify an Otherwise Attractive Market?
Some conditions should trigger immediate concern.
No affordable venue
Without a workable home facility, the economics cannot be built.
No qualified owner
A market without responsible local leadership is not ready.
Unrealistic attendance assumptions
The team should not rely on filling thousands of seats before it has established demand.
Excessive travel isolation
The market may create more league-wide cost than value.
Weak sponsorship access
A large population does not guarantee commercial support.
Heavy dependence on one partner
One sponsor, venue or investor should not control the entire team’s survival.
Competing sports saturation
A city may already have more entertainment inventory than its audience and businesses can support.
No distinct identity
The team must represent something more specific than “basketball happens here.”
Insufficient operating capital
The ownership group must be prepared to complete the season even if early revenue develops more slowly than projected.
The most dangerous market is not necessarily the one with obvious weaknesses.
It is the one whose excitement causes leadership to ignore them.
Why Smaller Markets Can Still Win
A market does not need millions of residents to become valuable.
Smaller markets may offer:
- Lower venue costs
- Less professional sports competition
- Greater local media attention
- Stronger community identity
- More accessible sponsors
- Easier travel
- A more concentrated audience
The team may need only a modest portion of the regional population to become consistent customers.
The commercial objective is not to dominate a national market.
It is to build a sustainable local one.
A well-operated team drawing 1,500 paying customers, retaining sponsors and controlling expenses may be more attractive than a team in a larger city struggling for attention inside an expensive venue.
Market quality is not the same as market size.
Why Large Markets Can Still Fail
Large cities create opportunity, but they also create competition.
A team may compete against:
- Major professional franchises
- College athletics
- Concerts
- Festivals
- Nightlife
- Youth tournaments
- Streaming entertainment
- Other minor-league properties
Marketing can be more expensive.
Venues may be less available.
Local media may have little space for an emerging organization.
Sponsors may receive constant requests from established properties.
A large population can create false confidence.
The relevant issue is not how many people live in the region.
It is whether USBN can efficiently reach and convert a defined segment of them.
The Recurring Market Evaluation Series
This article establishes the framework for an ongoing Sports Fund 1 and USBN series.
Each future market evaluation can examine one proposed city using the same scorecard:
- Market and population profile
- Potential venues
- Business and sponsorship landscape
- Basketball culture
- Travel and regional alignment
- Player and coaching pool
- Ownership and operating requirements
- Final market classification
The conclusion should not simply declare that a city “deserves” a team.
It should identify:
- What makes the market attractive
- What risks could prevent success
- What conditions must be satisfied
- Whether the city should be prioritized, developed, monitored or rejected
That level of transparency is important.
Every community has advocates.
Not every community is ready.
The Goal Is Not to Find More Cities
USBN’s growth plan requires additional markets.
But growth cannot be measured only by the number of teams announced.
A new market creates value only when its team can:
- Complete its schedule
- Attract customers
- Serve sponsors
- Operate professionally
- Develop players
- Strengthen the league
- Remain financially viable
The wrong market adds cost, complexity and reputational risk.
The right market adds:
- Customers
- Sponsors
- Players
- Content
- Rivalries
- Community identity
- Long-term league value
That is why market selection must be deliberate.
We do not begin with a logo.
We begin with the people, venue, businesses, culture, travel, players and ownership required to build a functioning professional basketball organization.
The city name may appear on the jersey.
The market infrastructure determines whether that jersey represents a lasting team.
What City Should We Evaluate Next?
Nominate a city in the comments and explain why it could support a professional USBN basketball team.
Include:
- City and state
- Potential venue
- Local basketball connection
- Why the community would support the team
The strongest nominations may become the next edition of the USBN Market Evaluation Series.
Sports Fund 1 provides a behind-the-scenes look at building, funding, and scaling emerging sports businesses outside the major professional leagues.
Market evaluations are preliminary strategic analyses and do not constitute a team award, expansion commitment, investment recommendation or offer to sell securities.